Budget Resolutions and Economic Situation
I refer hon. Members to my entry in the Register of Members’ Financial Interests. It is a great pleasure to follow the right hon. Member for Hove and Portslade (Peter Kyle), who was an excellent Business and Trade Secretary and <span id="342" class="column-number" data-column-number="342"></span>a great loss to the Government when he stepped down. Like him, I have been writing about economic growth—he wrote an essay; I wrote a book. I have absolute confidence that all Members were poring over every word in my book over the summer. The book happens to be called “Can We Be Rich Again?”, in case anyone was interested. I want to say, in a brief contribution, that doing a Budget since 2022 has become much harder because the invasion of Ukraine caused a spike in energy prices and inflation, which brought to an end over a decade of near-zero interest rates. In that context, rule No. 1 is not to upset the markets. Today they are calm and long may that last. Rule No. 2 is to do no harm. Frankly, after two Budgets that put up taxes, mainly on business, by £66 billion, many will be relieved that today it is “just” a £2 billion tax rise on businesses. I am worried, however, that the bank tax will lead to higher mortgage rates, which will make the cost of living worse for ordinary families. My concern is about what I might call rule No. 3, which is never to waste a Budget. In the run-up to a Budget, the Chancellor of the Exchequer is, in some ways, the most powerful person in the country. They are sitting on top of the most powerful Government Department and they have the full support of No. 10 Downing Street, which needs Budgets to be successful. The OBR has just downgraded our growth next year to 1%, and there are still formidable impediments to getting back to that 2% to 3% growth that we all know is so important. Today could have been the Budget that set out plans to get 1 million young people off welfare and into work. We could have found out how it is going to happen, when it is going to happen, where the money is going to come from, and what the impact will be on national accounts. Today could have been the Budget that showed how we are going to enshrine AI into every part of our economy, helping us to become the world’s next silicon valley—that would have been an extraordinarily powerful opportunity for us. There were some things mentioned about bringing down energy prices, but it could have been the Budget that showed how, over three years, we are going to get energy prices for businesses, factories and data centres down to levels in France, where they are 35% less, and it could have shown how that was going to happen. It could have been the Budget, with Ukraine about to go into the most difficult winter, that showed how we are going to get defence spending up to 3% of GDP and how that is going to help our technology sector and our economic growth in the process. Instead, I fear the Chancellor and the Prime Minister have wasted their political capital by putting off difficult decisions. We are told that we will not hear what is going to happen with respect to those not in education, employment or training until the new year. We are not going to find out about defence spending and the spending review until the end of next year. That is a year away. The problem is that those decisions are going to be harder in a year’s time than they are today, and today could have been a Budget that did so much more. The Prime Minister likes talking about hope. Young people are leaving school and university with high levels of debt and fewer available jobs—particularly far fewer graduate jobs—and they are worried about their future. They are losing hope. We had lots of so-called <span id="343" class="column-number" data-column-number="343"></span>breathing space measures and they are welcome in their own right, but they will be forgotten within a matter of months. To really give people hope, we have to be prepared to take difficult decisions. We need to be completely honest: reforming welfare is really difficult. It was difficult for the Conservatives and it is difficult for Labour—I understand that it is particularly difficult for a Labour party to reform welfare. Controlling public spending is difficult, as the former Chief Secretary to the Treasury, now the Economic Secretary, knows well, and it is very difficult for any Government to deal with the pressures on public spending. Dealing with the reforms that improve public sector productivity, bring down energy prices or sort out vocational education involve very difficult decisions, but today I feel none the wiser as to whether those difficult decisions are going to be taken. That is my worry. In the end, people need to have a sense of a Government that are prepared to grasp the nettle on all those difficult things. I am afraid that it is not enough to say, “It’s okay because we are not the Tories.” We got a lot of things right, and I am proud of the fact that 4 million jobs were created under 14 years of Conservative rule—that is 800 jobs a day, by the way, compared with 200 fewer jobs a day since Labour came to office—but we also made mistakes. Looking forward, we know that there are lots of difficult decisions that need to be taken. Until we have a Government that are prepared to grasp the nettle on those decisions, our economy will continue to be buffeted by international storms instead of being master of its own destiny.