Conservative and Unionist Party MP for Harwich and North Essex since (elected).
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| Party | Office | Area | Period | Began | Ended | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | MP | Harwich and North Essex | – present | elected | — | Party history |
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I do not think that the Minister mentioned Essex in his statement, but he made a point about funding which I think is much appreciated—that areas have incurred costs in good faith. Does that apply to Essex? On the basis of £450,000 per new unitary previously announced, we would be due £2.25 million for the inconvenience and disruption to local government in Essex.
Will the right hon. Gentleman give way?
Legislating for growth?
Will the right hon. Gentleman give way?
Let me respond to the hon. Member for Dartford (Jim Dickson) in one respect. Harwich and North Essex is a very rural constituency, and any restraints applied to gas or electricity have limited effect, because a lot of my constituents in rural areas are on kerosene and heating oil—I confess that I am on heating oil. The Government have not even removed VAT on domestic heating oil. Why are the Government doing this pre-election council band A to D manoeuvre, which will benefit mostly their voters, but completely ignoring the interests of rural voters? Forgive me if I detain the House a little on defence. We are in exactly the same position that we were in when the previous Defence Secretary resigned under Keir Starmer. In fact, the Chancellor said that he set a target date of 2030 for 3%. That is the same target as when the then Prime Minister appeared before the Liaison Committee. The Chancellor said that “I am getting work under way to get there in a fiscally sustainable way.” That was the reason the now Chancellor resigned from the Government, so what was that all about? It was obviously not about defence, because nobody can make any plans until the Treasury has signed off figures for increased defence spending, and it has not done so. It is still not going to sign them off until the public spending review, which may be after the next general election. I am sure that Labour Members know that the next general election is going to be pretty tough for them. Their very large majority was a bit of an electoral accident, so many of them will lose their seats, but they can trust the Prime Minister, because he said on 25 September, “Don’t worry, the election will be in 2029”—just as he said, “We’re not going to reopen all the arguments about rejoining the EU” and, “We’re not going to reopen the argument about free movement.” Hon. Ladies and Gentlemen in difficult seats facing a difficult election next spring can absolutely trust the Prime Minister; he is not going to do that to them. Trust is rather important in a political party. I hope it is not getting too bad within Labour. Let me say what I really think about this Budget. It is a non-Budget, exactly as my right hon. Friend the Leader of the Opposition and others have said. It is a breathing space. Another £2.2 billion of new taxes on <span id="373" class="column-number" data-column-number="373"></span>business is by far its biggest effect, and the impact of the two previous, absolutely catastrophic Budgets remains embedded in Government policy. They hammered sectors such as hospitality, and businesses that used to enjoy employing a lot of young people can no longer afford to do so. Take Rix, a farm business in my constituency that is the leading supplier of potatoes and onions to Tesco. It employs mostly low-paid workers—a lot of young people—and its costs have rocketed as a result of the change to national insurance contributions. Take the Cricketers in Eight Ash Green, a pub that has been virtually driven out of business by the increase in national insurance costs and business rates. By the way, there has been no cut in business rates—this Government put them up. I am very pleased that they have responded to the Conservative campaign to increase the exemption, but as we have just heard from my right hon. Friend the Member for Beverley and Holderness (Graham Stuart), it is a very slight change. As has also been pointed out, all of these 59 micro-measures are minute. What the OBR actually says about national insurance contributions is that “Sharper falls in employment among lower-paid sectors are consistent with our judgement that these firms would be most affected by the” increase in national insurance contributions. That is the truth, and the Government have not faced up to it. On the question of the real public expenditure outlook, let us look at the section in the OBR’s outlook that deals with welfare spending—the Chancellor is announcing £100 million here, £200 million here or £10 million here, but this is the real problem. Paragraph 5.21 says: “Welfare spending is forecast to rise…by £19 billion (5.7 per cent) to £353 billion or 11.1 per cent of GDP… It is then forecast to rise in nominal terms by an average of £16 billion (4.4 per cent) a year over the rest of the forecast period”. That utterly dwarfs any other figures that the Government have been talking about. “This would be 1.3 per cent of GDP higher than its pre-pandemic level of 10.1 per cent of GDP in 2019-20, with 0.5 per cent of GDP of this increase occurring between 2025-26 and 2031-32.” The Government are still spending on welfare, and they are not committing to spend on defence. That is the reality of this Budget.
I beg the hon. Gentleman to listen to himself. What he is basically saying is that the reason there will be such gargantuan increases in welfare payments between now and 2031-32 is that it is all our fault—that it is because of what we did. [Hon. Members: “Yes!”] It is not. The Government have not begun to tackle the welfare state problem. We should have done; and they must do so, or we are heading for a fiscal crisis. It is interesting what the Red Book says about the forthcoming fiscal crisis.
If the hon. Gentleman is saying, “If only we were not doing this later retirement thing, there would be more jobs for young people,” I have to say that managing the economy in that way is not very successful. It does not work. On the forecast, the Government set great store by what the IMF says about the UK’s deficit reduction programme. The Red Book states: “The IMF forecasts that the UK’s deficit reduction this year will be bigger than any other G20 country.” I am afraid that there are a lot of lemmings rushing over cliffs in that G20 bloc. It is not a good benchmark for success. In any case, the forecast is based on the forecast that the Government have given to the IMF, and the reduction has not been delivered yet. The Government have not started to deliver the debt reduction programme. The OBR says that debt rises from 95.5% of GDP this year to 97.3% in 2028-29. The headroom is just £15 billion in 2029-30, which is £7 billion less than at the last Budget. The OBR says there is only a 56% chance of meeting the rule. As the bond markets digest this Budget, I am not sure they will be quite as sanguine as they have been. I will end by responding to a point that we heard from the hon. Member for Hornsey and Friern Barnet (Catherine West). She talked about us getting back into the European Union and said that 60% of the economy is dependent upon trade with Europe. That is rubbish. What proportion of GDP do we export to the EU in goods? The single market is about goods. Incidentally, our record on services exports outside the EU is that there has been a dramatic, massive increase.
No, I will not give away. Only 5.9% of the UK economy is goods exports to the EU. A much larger proportion goes outside the EU. Incidentally, during our period of membership, the proportion of GDP that we exported to the EU was in steady decline from 1992 to 2021. Other factors have led to the decline in our exports with the EU. Overall—this is the astonishing thing, and I will end on this point—our economy has outgrown France and Germany since 1992. Leaving the EU has not reversed that trend. I wonder whether Government Members do not understand the irony when they say, “We are the fastest-growing economy in the G7.” That has often been the case, because the EU is not a very efficient market and does not add much value to our economy. In fact, we have grown our exports to the rest of the world.
No, I am not giving way; I have given way twice. <em>[</em><em>Interruption.</em><em>]</em> Members may shout me down, but they do not want to hear the facts. The fact is that our economy is now growing faster outside the EU than it would have done, because of two sectors: financial services, and tech and AI. They are not regulated by the EU. Employment in the City of London has doubled since 2016. All the doom-mongers who told us that the City was finished were wrong.<span id="375" class="column-number" data-column-number="375"></span>
Thank you for your chairmanship today, Dr Murrison. In passing, I thank the Government for changing their mind about the Health Services Safety Investigation Body and for keeping that body, so that it can continue working as it is. I wonder what it would make of a systemic study of the safety management risks and how they are being managed with prostate cancer and screening, because I see very different experiences across different European countries and a wide variety of methods of gathering data. Blanket screening exists in very few countries. I heard what the hon. Member for Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket (Dr Prinsley) said, but my understanding is that an MRI scan followed by a needle biopsy need not necessarily have much in the way of adverse health effects. I had three MRI scans, but no needle biopsy.